****0000005084**** WTIO30 FMEE 291823 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/14/20242025 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY) 2.A POSITION 2025/03/29 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 89.5 E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/7.0/S 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2025/03/30 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 140 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45 24H: 2025/03/30 18 UTC: 22.4 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35 36H: 2025/03/31 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 220 NW: 165 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35 48H: 2025/03/31 18 UTC: 24.2 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 95 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0 60H: 2025/04/01 06 UTC: 24.8 S / 88.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 175 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110 72H: 2025/04/01 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 285 SW: 325 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 65 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: 96H: 2025/04/02 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 85.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 0 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=6.0 A SAR PASS HAS PASSED OVER COURTNEY AT 1239UTC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS MEASURED AT 100KT. HOWEVER, STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH-WEST QUADRANT SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THIS QUADRANT. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 12UTC CARRIED OUT BY THE RSMC GAVE WINDS AT 120KT. THE BESTRACK HAS THEREFORE BEEN REVISED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS, WITH WINDS AT 12UTC OF 110KT. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE COURTNEY'S EYE CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, BUT HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY. THE EYE CONTOUR IS A LITTLE LESS REGULAR AND THE TEMPERATURE IN THE EYE HAS COOLED. DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS GIVES A T OF 6.0. IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER DATA AND IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OF THE CIMSS, COURTNEY IS MAINTAINED AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 110KT. IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. LINKED TO A RIDGE OF HIGH AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, COURTNEY CONTINUES TO TURN SOUTH-WEST. THE MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY, ALSO ATTRACTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE DOWN INTO THE MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS. ON MONDAY, COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION AT 700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, COURTNEY WILL CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, WIND SHEAR STILL HAVING LITTLE IMPACT) AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER RANGE OF THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THEN, THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SUNDAY, THROUGH INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT OVER LOWER ENERGY CONTENT SURFACE WATERS, ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING. COURTNEY IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE MONDAY MORNING. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, COURTNEY COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL FEATURES, AND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN, CAUSING IT TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LACKING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES MORE CLEARLY OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS. COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=