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WTIO30 FMEE 300019

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/14/20242025

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (COURTNEY)



2.A POSITION 2025/03/30 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 88.8 E

(TWENTY    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND

EIGHTY EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 2.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 140

34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55

64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP



1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):

12H: 2025/03/30 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 150

34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 95

48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45



24H: 2025/03/31 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

28 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 165

34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 95

48 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45



36H: 2025/03/31 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 215 NW: 175

34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100

48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35



48H: 2025/04/01 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 165

34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95



60H: 2025/04/01 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 150

34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85



72H: 2025/04/02 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT

LOW

28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 280 NW: 85

34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 0



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:

NIL





2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.0 CI=6.0



OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, COURTNEY HAS BEGUN TO SUFFER FROM

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. ITS EYE CONFIGURATION HAS FLUCTUATED

CONSIDERABLY, AND A DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS GIVES A

T OF 5.0. MOREOVER, THE F18 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 2126Z CLEARLY SHOWS

CONVECTION REJECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER, WHILE MAINTAINING A

FIRM EYE VISIBLE AT 89 GHZ. IN LINE WITH CIMSS OBJECTIVE ANALYSES,

COURTNEY IS MAINTAINED AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF

100KT.



IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. LINKED TO A RIDGE OF HIGH AND

MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, COURTNEY CONTINUES TO TURN SOUTH-WEST. THE

MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY, ALSO ATTRACTED BY AN

UPPER TROUGH CIRCULATING TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE

SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE STEERING FLOW

SHOULD MOVE DOWN INTO THE MID-LEVELS AND THEN INTO THE LOWER LAYERS.

ON MONDAY, COURTNEY SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL

SITUATION AT 700HPA, THEN THE MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME WESTWARDS FROM

TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE

WIND FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL

ANTICYCLONE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THERE IS A

VERY WIDE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.





IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DESPITE GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND

STILL-GOOD OCEAN POTENTIAL, THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH, INJECTING DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE CENTER. COURTNEY SHOULD

THEREFORE WEAKEN GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM'S

SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL TAKE IT OVER LOWER ENERGY CONTENT SURFACE

WATERS, ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING. COURTNEY IS THEREFORE

EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE MONDAY

MORNING. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT,

COURTNEY COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL FEATURES, AND CONVECTION IS

LIKELY TO WEAKEN, CAUSING IT TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM

AND THEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LACKING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.

THE DRY AIR WILL ENTER HARD ABOVE THE CENTER WITH NO POSSIBILITY OF

REINTENSIFICATION. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND THEN NEAR-GALE-FORCE WINDS

SHOULD PERSIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT

EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES MORE CLEARLY

OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS.



COURTNEY DOES NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED LAND.=