****0000002359****
WTNT42 KNHC 301455

TCDAT2

 

Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024

1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024

 

Satellite images show an expanding area of central convection near 

the system with the low-level center on the western side of the deep 

convection.  Microwave data from a few hours ago showed that an 

inner core is forming, with a partial eyewall noted on an AMSU 

pass. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt based on 40-45 kt 

winds from a pair of recent scatterometer passes. 



The motion of Kirk appears to be westward at about 10 kt, with the 

center apparently re-forming to the south within the deeper 

convection.  The track forecast is relatively straightforward, with 

Kirk expected to follow the south and southwestern edge of the 

subtropical high over the east-central Atlantic, resulting in a 

path that gradually gains latitude and Kirk moving northward by 

this weekend.  Other than a small westward adjustment based on the 

initial motion, the new forecast is very close to the old one.



The environment around Kirk appears quite favorable for 

strengthening during the next several days, with warm waters, a 

moist environment and low shear in forecast.  Given the formation 

of an inner core, the rate of strengthening has been raised in the 

short term, and rapid intensification is a distinct possibility.  

The biggest negative to this system is probably its large size, 

which could eventually promote eyewall replacement cycles and some 

SST cooling ahead of the system.  Still, almost all of the guidance 

show Kirk becoming quite a large and powerful hurricane.  The new 

NHC intensity forecast lies between the dynamical model consensus 

and the statistical-dynamical models, which are quite bullish on 

this system.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  30/1500Z 13.5N  34.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

 12H  01/0000Z 13.6N  36.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  01/1200Z 14.0N  38.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

 36H  02/0000Z 14.7N  40.4W   80 KT  90 MPH

 48H  02/1200Z 15.8N  41.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

 60H  03/0000Z 17.1N  43.1W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  03/1200Z 18.4N  44.4W  105 KT 120 MPH

 96H  04/1200Z 20.7N  46.7W  110 KT 125 MPH

120H  05/1200Z 23.5N  48.7W  105 KT 120 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Blake