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WTNT43 KNHC 040845

TCDAT3

 

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024

500 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

 

A 0421 UTC GMI microwave pass showed that Leslie has developed a 

well-defined low-level structure, along with what appears to be an 

attempt at an eyewall feature south of the center.  This asymmetry 

in the convection is the result of continued moderate shear out of 

the north-northeast.  ASCAT-C data from several hours ago showed 

several 44-kt wind barbs northwest of the center.  Given the 

typical undersampling of this instrument, and the storm's improved 

structure despite the shear, the initial intensity is estimated to 

be 50 kt.



The GMI and ASCAT passes helped immensely in locating Leslie's 

center, which is a little farther south than previously estimated.  

Leslie is moving slowly westward, or 270/5 kt, along the southern 

periphery of the subtropical ridge.  With the ridge expected to 

remain centered over the eastern Atlantic, Leslie is forecast to 

gradually turn west-northwestward later today and then toward the 

northwest in about 48 hours, with that motion continuing through 

the middle of next week.  The NHC track forecast is near a blend of 

the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and any differences from the 

previous prediction should be considered negligible.



The deep-layer shear affecting Leslie is likely to abate in about 

12 hours.  However, there are a few environmental features that 

could potentially limit Leslie's rate of intensification.  

Mid-level shear and dry air are shown to be the biggest negative 

factors in the SHIPS diagnostics, and Leslie may end up moving over 

Hurricane Kirk's cold wake.  Additional strengthening is still 

anticipated, however much of the intensity guidance has come down 

on this cycle.  The NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than 

the previous forecast to follow this trend, but it lies near or 

above the highest intensity models for most of the forecast period.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  04/0900Z  9.8N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  04/1800Z 10.1N  33.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 24H  05/0600Z 10.5N  34.7W   60 KT  70 MPH

 36H  05/1800Z 11.0N  36.1W   70 KT  80 MPH

 48H  06/0600Z 11.8N  37.3W   75 KT  85 MPH

 60H  06/1800Z 13.0N  38.6W   80 KT  90 MPH

 72H  07/0600Z 14.5N  40.1W   85 KT 100 MPH

 96H  08/0600Z 17.5N  43.6W   90 KT 105 MPH

120H  09/0600Z 20.3N  47.2W   95 KT 110 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Berg