****0000002220****
WTNT43 KNHC 051450

TCDAT3

 

Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  13

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024

1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024

 

Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Leslie this 

morning. Some of the latest satellite images depict a little bit of 

shear starting to impact the system, with a sharper convective edge 

on the western side. Subjective and objective satellite intensity 

estimates range from 65 to 75 kt.  Using a blend of these estimates, 

the initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory.

 

Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (295/6 kt), 

steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. 

The ridge will continue to steer Leslie the next several days with a 

turn more northwestward, with an increase in forward speed by the 

middle of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very close 

to the previous, and lies near the simple and corrected consensus 

aids.



The intensity forecast continues to trend downward with Leslie. The 

system has about 12-24 hours left within a favorable environment 

where some slight additional strengthening may occur. By Sunday, 

increased shear, drier mid-level, and the track taking Leslie over 

Kirk's cold wake, this could cause some weakening after 24 hours. 

There is better agreement with the weakening trend, however they 

differ on how significantly and how quickly weakening will occur. 

Therefore, downward adjustments were made to the NHC intensity 

forecast and now has Leslie weakening below hurricane strength 

beyond 48 h.  If trends continue further downward adjustments may be 

required in future advisories. 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  05/1500Z 11.1N  35.4W   70 KT  80 MPH

 12H  06/0000Z 11.7N  36.2W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  06/1200Z 12.7N  37.4W   75 KT  85 MPH

 36H  07/0000Z 13.8N  38.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

 48H  07/1200Z 15.0N  40.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 60H  08/0000Z 16.4N  42.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  08/1200Z 17.8N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

 96H  09/1200Z 20.4N  47.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  10/1200Z 22.4N  50.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

 

$$

Forecaster Kelly