****0000006028**** WTNT80 EGRR 301611 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.09.2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 49.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2024 22.3N 49.2W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2024 23.2N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 24.7N 48.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 26.5N 48.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 29.5N 46.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 34.2N 41.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 38.7N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 44.6N 30.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2024 44.6N 30.2W MODERATE 00UTC 01.10.2024 45.9N 26.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2024 47.3N 23.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 48.5N 22.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 49.8N 21.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 50.5N 20.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 53.1N 20.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM 12L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 34.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122024 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2024 13.3N 34.7W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2024 14.5N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2024 14.8N 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2024 15.6N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 16.3N 44.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 17.2N 46.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 18.3N 47.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 18.6N 48.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 19.8N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 21.3N 51.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2024 23.3N 53.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2024 25.8N 53.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.10.2024 28.9N 53.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2024 32.4N 50.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2024 37.0N 46.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 11.1N 25.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2024 10.8N 26.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2024 10.5N 27.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2024 10.3N 28.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2024 10.0N 30.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 10.0N 31.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 10.1N 33.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 10.2N 34.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2024 10.7N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 11.2N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 11.8N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 12.5N 38.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 14.0N 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 15.3N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 35.2N 66.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2024 34.9N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2024 34.3N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2024 33.6N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2024 32.5N 61.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2024 32.0N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2024 32.6N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.5N 94.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2024 20.7N 94.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.10.2024 20.8N 94.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2024 21.7N 93.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2024 22.8N 93.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2024 23.7N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 24.4N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 14.4N 106.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2024 15.0N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2024 15.8N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 301611