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WTPN21 PHNC 010200

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

A 135 NM RADIUS OF 14.2N 95.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL

CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO

BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A

CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 95.5W. THE SYSTEM IS

MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N

95.5W, APPROXITMATELY 142NM SOUTHWEST OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED

MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDING WITH

PERSISTENT DEEP FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96E IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR

DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,

GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SHOWING SPLIT FORECAST TRACKS

OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH THE SYSTEM EITHER HEADING WEST INTO OPEN

WATERS OR NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS SHOW THAT 96E IS EXPECTED

TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE

IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

020200Z.//

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