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WTPQ30 RJTD 030000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 2418 KRATHON (2418)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

  TY KRATHON IS LOCATED AT 22.3N, 119.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT

  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND

  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS

  IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE

  OF LAND, DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO

  WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT

  INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE

  OBSERVATIONS.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

  THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL

  HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED. ANIMATED MSI

  SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER

  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89

  GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.

3.TRACK FORECAST

  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO

  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE

  SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED

  ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK

  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG

  NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF

  INTERACTION WITH LAND, DRY AIR AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL

  THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH

  LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24.

  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA

  INCLUDING GSM.

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