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WTXS21 PGTW 232200

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 114.2E TO 17.2S 110.5E

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT

IMAGERY AT 231800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 14.3S 114.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06

KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVOISOULY LOCATED

NEAR 14.4S 113.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 114.0E APPROXIMATELTY 469

NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRAILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH

FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF A

LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 231720Z ASMR2 89 GHZ

MICROWAVE IMAGE. A PARTIAL 231305Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS 20-25

KNOT WINDS WRAPPING TOWARD THE LLCC, AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER, GRADIENT-

INDUCED 25-30 KNOT WINDS APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG

POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE

IN BROAD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WHILE TRACKING

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE

WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

242200Z.//

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