****0000001695****
WTXS21 PGTW 270500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 121.0E TO 15.9S 124.6E

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT

IMAGERY AT 270430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 13.8S 121.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 06

KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 14.9S 121.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY

252 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A

WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH VERY INTENSE,

DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST SIDE. A 270142Z

ASCAT-C BULLSEYE PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WITH A SWATH OF 30

KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A

MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS, OFFSET BY WESTWARD UPPER-LEVEL

OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. OVER THE

COURSE OF 48 HOURS, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON THE

SYSTEM'S TRACK, INITIALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO

A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA.

CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS SPLIT, WITH MOST MODEL MEMBERS REACHING

// END PART 01 //