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WTXS31 PGTW 202100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 005//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 005

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   201800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 96.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 96.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   210600Z --- 15.3S 96.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   211800Z --- 15.6S 97.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   220600Z --- 15.4S 97.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   221800Z --- 14.9S 97.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

    ---

REMARKS:

202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 96.4E.

20MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY

137 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-

SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS NOW VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

A 201501Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALED A BAND OF 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE

NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH A COUPLE SCATTERED 35 KNOT BARBS, AIDING IN

THE ASSESSMENT OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO

TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND WILL

CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ERODE THE VORTEX. AFTER

TAU 24, THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES VERY WEAK AND SLOW TRACK SPEEDS

ARE EXPECTED AS THE VORTEX DRIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48. GFS HAS

THE SYSTEM TRACKING MORE EASTWARD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST

(AFTER TAU 96) AND EVENTUALLY INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE

SYSTEM THAT FORMS ABOUT 390 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH. THIS

INTERACTION WOULD ALLOW 26S TO REINTENSIFY. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY

OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE

BEFORE THEN AND WILL NOT HAVE THE CHANCE TO REINTENSIFY. THIS IS THE

FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL

HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF

REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 1001 MB.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 15 FEET.//

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