****0000002528****
WTXS32 PGTW 160900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 011//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE) WARNING NR 011

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   160600Z --- NEAR 26.4S 53.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 20 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   SUBTROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 53.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   161800Z --- 28.0S 57.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   SUBTROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

160900Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 54.4E.

16MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (JUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369

NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT

20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY

(MSI) DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION

WITH MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EASTWARD AND

POLEWARD. A 160444Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES WIND SPEEDS OF

40-45 KTS, WHILE ASSISTING WITH CURRENT POSITION ASSESSMENT TO THE

WEST OF THIS PARTIAL PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS

ALREADY LOCATED WITHIN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH COOLING

(26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG (40+ KTS) VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR, ENHANCED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE

TROUGH. TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANSITIONING INTO AN

ASYMMETRIC COLD CORE LOW AS IT TRACKS FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS

IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN

PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS

OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 993 MB.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET.//

NNNN