****0000005661****
WTXS51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 27S SIO 250401073336
2025040106 27S COURTNEY 020 01 250 03 SATL 030
T000 250S 0884E 045 R034 000 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 252S 0879E 040 R034 000 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 25.0S 88.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 88.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 25.2S 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 88.3E.
01APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (COURTNEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
907 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED,
ELONGATED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
HEAVILY SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 010232Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
REVEALED THE ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 40-45 KTS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 27S IS
PLACED WITHIN A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
VERY HIGH (OVER 50 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOL (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 27S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DROPPING IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASINGLY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING BOTH THE WESTWARD TRACK AND THE CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND.
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE VORTEX FURTHER SHALLOWS AND BECOMES COMPLETELY TAKEN
OVER BY DRY AIR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
010600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20
FEET.//
2725032100 154S1121E 15
2725032106 152S1124E 15
2725032112 148S1128E 20
2725032118 145S1134E 25
2725032200 138S1140E 25
2725032206 136S1148E 25
2725032212 134S1152E 25
2725032218 130S1153E 25
2725032300 129S1154E 25
2725032306 133S1150E 25
2725032312 139S1145E 25
2725032318 145S1139E 25
2725032400 153S1132E 30
2725032406 160S1120E 30
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2725032500 167S1100E 40
2725032506 168S1092E 40
2725032512 170S1083E 40
2725032518 173S1072E 45
2725032600 177S1054E 55
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2725032606 177S1041E 60
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2725032612 175S1032E 70
2725032612 175S1032E 70
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2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032706 168S1000E 80
2725032712 168S 992E 90
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2725032912 186S 901E 130
2725032918 195S 893E 125
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2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033000 201S 888E 115
2725033006 211S 882E 100
2725033006 211S 882E 100
2725033006 211S 882E 100
2725033012 218S 880E 80
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2725033012 218S 880E 80
2725033018 223S 879E 75
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2725033018 223S 879E 75
2725033100 231S 881E 70
2725033100 231S 881E 70
2725033100 231S 881E 70
2725033106 240S 885E 65
2725033106 240S 885E 65
2725033106 240S 885E 65
2725033112 246S 888E 60
2725033112 246S 888E 60
2725033118 248S 888E 55
2725033118 248S 888E 55
2725040100 249S 887E 50
2725040100 249S 887E 50
2725040106 250S 884E 45
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